1. Analysis background introduction
Enterprises engaged in international trade
must analyze the historical and real-time exchange rates of the US dollar
against major currencies, because exchange rate fluctuations will have a direct
and far-reaching impact on trade costs, profits and overall operations.
This case is a multinational trading
company headquartered in Beijing, China, mainly engaged in import and export
business. The business scope covers multiple industries, including electronic
products, machinery and equipment, textiles and agricultural products.As an
international trade company, it has established extensive cooperative relations
with suppliers and customers around the world, and the trading currencies
mainly include US dollars, euros, pounds sterling and Japanese yen. Companies
need to conduct frequent foreign exchange transactions. However, exchange rate
fluctuations have a significant impact on the company's finances. In terms of
foreign exchange management, the company has always adopted traditional
methods, mainly relying on simple forecasts of market exchange rates. However,
the high uncertainty of the market and sudden economic events often lead to
inaccurate forecasts, resulting in unexpected losses in foreign exchange
trading. These losses not only affect the profits of the enterprise, but also
pose a threat to the overall financial stability of the company. The company
decided to implement an exchange rate analysis improvement project, which aims
to improve the accuracy of exchange rate forecasting, optimize foreign exchange
risk management, and enhance the financial stability of the enterprise.
2. Statement of key issues
1) Assess the impact of exchange rate
fluctuations on funds
2) Formulate a reasonable foreign exchange
risk management strategy.
3) Optimize the price strategies of
different countries to ensure competitiveness in different exchange rate
environments.
4) Predict future exchange rate trends
through historical performance in order to make wiser business decisions.
3. Analyze the plan
For the above key issues, select key data
indicators.
|
Serial
number
|
Name
of the indicator
|
Paraphrase
|
Analysis
angle
|
|
1
|
Historical
exchange rate
|
The
exchange rate of monthly settlement
|
It
is used for trend analysis and medium- and long-term strategic
decision-making to help enterprises understand the long-term fluctuations and
change laws of the exchange rate.
|
|
2
|
Real-time
exchange rate
|
The
real-time exchange rate changes at any time
|
It
reflects the latest situation of the current market, actuallyThe exchange
rate may fluctuate violently in a short period of time. Import and export
enterprises, foreign exchange traders and investors use real-time exchange
rates for spot trading and short-term decision-making.
|
|
3
|
Average
exchange rate
|
Arithmetic
average exchange rate: a simple average of the exchange rate over a period of
time
|
The
average exchange rate can be used as a benchmark to compare it with the
exchange rate of other periods of time to assess the relative changes of the
exchange rate.
|
|
4
|
Year-on-year
exchange rate change rate
|
Year-on-year
exchange rate change rate = (current exchange rate?The exchange
rate of the same period of the previous period)/The exchange rate of the same
period in the previous period×One hundred percent
|
The
year-on-year exchange rate can help identify the long-term trend of the
exchange rate. For example, the year-on-year exchange rate change rate is
positive for several consecutive months, indicating that the currency is
gradually apprecing;If it is negative, it means that the currency is
depreciating.
|
|
5
|
Currency
|
USD
(United States Dollar): US Dollar EUR (Euro): Euro GBP (Great Britain Pound):
British Pound AUD (Australian Dollar): Australian Dollar C AD (Canadian
Dollar): Canadian Dollar JPY (Japanese Yen): Japanese Yen
|
Common
trading currencies in international trade, understanding their exchange rate
changes is very important for trade.
|
|
6
|
Time
particles
|
Monthly
|
Monthly
settlement exchange rate (last working day)
|
3.2 Power BI Visualization Scheme
Description: The page data is random
simulation data, which is for reference only for analysis angle and Power BI
function display, and does not involve any actual business data.
4. Analysis and interpretation
Historical exchange rate, understand historical trends and volatility, and identify the
causes of potential cyclical patterns and abnormal fluctuations.
Real-time exchange rate, help us react quickly during the transaction process and reduce
the exchange rate risk.
Exchange rate trend
,Judge the future exchange rate trend.
The year-on-year change rate and average
of the exchange rate,It can provide important
reference information for managers to help them formulate reasonable foreign
exchange risk management strategies.
5. Application effect
Formulating exchange rate analysis provides
management with more reliable data support and helps make wiser decisions:
Analyze the US dollarThe average and
year-on-year change rate of the exchange rate, can predict the possible
trend of the future exchange rate. If it is predicted that the future exchange
rate may rise, enterprises can sign forward contracts to lock in the current
lower exchange rate and reduce the cost of paying foreign exchange in the
future.
If a country'sThe exchange rate
fluctuates greatly., you can buy options asHedgingTools to ensure
that profitability can be maintained under adverse exchange rate changes. For
example, if the US dollar is expected to appreciate, enterprises can buy call
options to protect their foreign exchange income.
Understand the long-term trend of the US
dollar against other currencies. If the US dollar is expected to depreciate for
a long time, it can be throughExchange rate swapExchange principal and
interest with counterparties to reduce long-term foreign exchange risks.
According to the year-on-year exchange
rate change rateWith the upward trend, enterprises
can lock in the forward exchange rate in advance to reduce future exchange
losses.